Two minutes to midnight and all that jazz....

Iron Maiden wrote a song back in the mid ‘80’s called two minutes to midnight, referencing the much vaunted “atomic” clock used by scientists to assess the threat level of nuclear war and the destruction of civilization. The hands on the clock being set closer to or further way from midnight depending on the political situations around the World. During the Cuban missile crisis the hands had been set at two minutes to midnight as tensions rose and fingers were poised over those infamous red buttons. Since the end of the cold war between Russia and America there has been a relaxing of nuclear tensions, based around the SALT nuclear arms reduction treaties, but of late the clock has been dusted off and is one again in use. The reason for this is clear. There has been an increased awareness of the threat of other countries developing and having access to nuclear weapons. At one point only Russia and America had atomic weapons, although these were based around the World, but always controlled by the superpowers. We are now in a position where we see Israel, India, Pakistan, China and North Korea with nuclear capability, and the potential for states such as Iran, Saudia Arabia and the former Russian states joining that group is significant. Further it has been discovered that significant quantities of enriched Uranium is not where it is supposed to be, and may have been sold on the black market. The possibilities of dirty bomb terrorist attacks is considered significant, as is the use of limited yield tactical devices in border disputes in the developing World.

There was an interesting programme on Channel 4 in the UK last night regarding this issue and there are in my opinion two angles to be considered. It is undoubtedly the case that nuclear weapons are proliferating rather than being reduced, and it is also almost certainly the case that they are proliferating in areas of questionable stability. Ranged against these conjectures is the issue of lack of credibility in global leaders in regard to issues such as these. In the UK there is a feeling that we were drawn into the first and Second Gulf War against Iraq on a false premise that Saddam Hussain held stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, particularly biological and chemical weapons, but also potentially nuclear weapons. There was a fraudulent dossier passed by the CIA detailing black market trade in “Yellow cake” or enriched weapons grade Uranium through Nigeria that was used spuriously as evidence. With a background of misinformation it is perhaps understandable that there is some question over the validity of the threat, particularly given the use of such threats as a perceived excuse for the erosion of civil liberties.

The need for constructive, rational debate over the implications of security of fissile material, and rather than sitting on stockpiles of weapons, move towards a truly global unilateral disarmament. There is no place for nuclear weapons in our World, and nor will there ever be. This is one genie that needs to be forced back into the bottle…..