Private Eye editor talks to Leveson Enquiry.....

Not that it will add much to the debate, but I am personally quite pleased that Mr Hislop has spoken at Leveson, and I find his comments to be worth recommending. I don't think that there can be any doubt that there has developed over the last twenty or so years an increasing feeling within the mainstream media that the public are only interested in juicy, sexy stories and that certainly in the tabloids there has been a move to feed the public a continuous diet of “celebrity” gossip rather than any attempt at real journalism. In spite of the outcry over the News of the Word hacking scandal it seems unlikely to me that there has been any real change in the way in which the press operates. Why do I say this? One very simple reason. I am rather afraid that the tabloid editors and their advisors who have reached this decision about what the public wants are correct. The evidence is that in spite of the coverage of the tabloid press and their activities we still see the same type of stories selling the same number of papers to the same people as we did before all of this came out.

The conclusion that I draw from this goes against the generally held conspiracy theorist view that the public are controlled by the media. I think this is pretty clear evidence that this is not now, nor has it ever been, the case. In fact I would go so far as to suggest that the opposite is in fact the case. That the public, who have the purchasing power are the ones to control what the media puts out. I think that it is quite clear that in the main editors are at the mercy of what the public will actually pay for. I can quite easily imagine editors at the News of the World meeting to discuss a story that they knew had been procured by non-standard means, and making a decision on whether to run it not based on anything ethical or moral but simply on the criteria of is this something the public will pay money for? I can even imagine them losing sleep at night thinking about how the driver of commercialism was forcing them to make editorial decisions that they themselves found morally repugnant.

This may seem an odd position for a blogger to take, and please don't misunderstand I am no defender of the actions of private investigators and lazy journalists, but I feel that the blame is being misplaced at least to some extent, and that we also need to look at society as a whole and why we are in a position that news stories have a lifespan of days, no matter how offensive, and why the criteria for what is considered news is decided y what is commercially acceptable rather than what is from a journalistic viewpoint a good story. This is not to try to shift blame but to raise awareness that the answers to getting a better, more responsible, more useful media are more complex than they are being portrayed. It is not simply a case of a few bad apples, or rogue elements, but a more deep rooted societal problem. It will be interesting to see what Leveson comes up with, but I suspect that one thing it won't do is address the issue of the public getting the media and therefore the stories that it deserves.

My own feeling is that this is symptomatic of the psychological condition within the human mind that drives us to always want more, more violence, more sex, more action, more drama, just more. Look at the development of horror films – each generation has to be more shocking than the last. The same is true in music, it has to be faster, louder, more extreme. In sport the standard of players at the top level is constantly being pushed. We are a species that thrives on the edge, tha exists to push boundaries, and this is partly what has driven us to our position of strength as a species, but is also what leaves us vulnerable to the charge that that same drive has negative implications that are just as damaging as the positives are healing. I'm not sure that there is a solution to this, or if there is that it is something that can be summed up easily, but I guess that we will have to see....

Tax doesn't have to be taxing....

Particularly if your personal tax calculation means that you aren't going to owe anything. It's been a tough year, with very little in the way of income, but hey, these things happen. Now don't get me wrong, it's been a tremendously busy year, and a year of solid achievement. If I had been in a position to get all of my invoices paid, I'd have done really well, but in the current economic climate, getting paid is rather a different matter to getting work. Three clients going bust hasn't helped but it is a learning process and one that is ongoing. Anyway, enough of that. The reason for this post is to remind all of my UK readers that the deadline for filing your tax return for the year 2010-2011 is 31^st January so not long to go now. Failing to get it in on time will result in a £100 fine, and realistically, even if you haven't started the process there is no reason why you can't still get it done. It isn't complex or difficult, it can be done online without difficulty and the whole process can be managed in a couple of days, a weekend, and you have a couple of those left before the deadline.

There is no getting around the need to file your tax return if you are responsible for your own tax so get organised, get your information on income and expenditure together and you can get the wjoe thing done pretty quickly an easily. You can always get help from a friendly local accountant for not very much money but to be honest it is pretty easy to do it yourself. One thing I will say is that if you do get stuck, the staff on the phonelines for HMRC are extremely helpful and make the process of getting the form done remarkably easy even if there are complicating issues. It is actually quite pleasant to find such a well staffed and efficient call centre who don't make you feel stupid when you cock something up.

There are two certainties in life, death and taxes, but that doesn't mean that tax has to be something to be frightened of or worried about. It is just one of those things that has to be done if we want to live in a society that has healthcare for all, free education up to eighteen years, roads, street lights and all those other bits and pieces that make life bearable. And yes, I know that our incme tax doesn't pay directly for those things – that in fact our income tax goes to make interest payments on Government debt, but lets face it, without income tax we would have to pay up in some other way, and this is probably the fairest method – the more you earn the more you pay....unless you are a large corporation of course......but thats another story.......

Practical self improvement tips – a series of tips to help you feel better about yourself

There are endless articles about self improvement or healthy lifestyles, or diets, or exercise regimes and many of them are sponsored by, or advertise, the major lifestyle brands that cash in on our dis-satisfaction. Conspiracy theorists out there please feel free to wonder if companies who stand to profit by making us feel bad about ourselves might perhaps not be best placed to offer advice on feeling better....but that is an aside, the point is that what there is a lack of is stuff that you can do for free, so that is what I am going to try to do here. All I ask in return is that if you find anything particularly useful, or have your own ideas, link them up here and let me know. What we need is a decent resource and a community that helps each other without alterior motive! So, on with this first article.

One of the quickest and easiest and most accessible ways of feeling a little better about yourself is to take exercise. This is medically proven fact. Taking exercise increases the amounts of dopamine and endorphins released in the brain and these chemicals are associated with pleasure and stimulation. They are the reason that some people can become addicted to exercise. They act to lift you mood slightly and to give you a very slight high. If this is the case, why are we not all super fit exercise freaks? It is a good question to which there isn't one clear answer. Some people will tell you that it is because we have as a society become lazy, but this doesn't seem right to me. It could be that we are all so tired after the amount of work, or stress if we are out of work that we have to deal with, but again this should be an argument for more exercise, not less, as it would help to increase our energy levels and decrease our stress levels. It could simply be a question of time, but again, it doesn't take more than about five minutes to take a little exercise so that seems incorrect to. I think it is almost certainly a combination of several of these reasons, and a few more each playing a part in making us less and less likely to start exercising.

Another big factor is of course motivation. We see this every year around this time as one by one our New Year resolutions slip away and we return to old habits. This is part of the reason for hoping that people will share their experiences and discoveries on these blog posts, because the very best way of retaining motivation is to be a part of a group that offers support and motivation to each other. Knowing that you are not alone can be a tremendous help. So in that spirit, let me tell you how I am introducing a little exercise back into my life. I wanted to work on my arms and shoulders as they have been becoming increasingly stiff and sore as I age, the after effects of too much high level sport in my youth I guess, but anyway, I can't afford a gym membership, and have body image issues that make exercising in public difficult so I am starting small. I take a can of beans in each hand and gently do a few biceps curls, you know, when you bend your arm at the elbow lifting your hand up? I do this during an ad break when I watching the morning news and again in the evening. Just about five minutes each time, but after a week the difference is quite remarkable. My arms hurt less and I am actually looking forward to doing my exercises a little. I am also sleeping a little better, which could be coincidence, but may not be, we will have to see.

So, come on folks, roll up roll up, lets here how you are doing with your heathy start to this Olympic year. Lets see if we can get a little group of mutual supporters going to make this a year to remember.....

Nights out in Birmingham – Fredericks Bar

Nights out in Birmingham – A series of unbiased reports on places I have been....

So, tonights report comes from a city centre bar in the Jewellery Quarter of Birmingham. The Jewellery Quarter is home to some lovely nightspots but is not on the agenda of many people since it is a little way from the city centre proper. During the day it has the majority of Birminghams jewellery trade, as the name suggests, both manufacturers and retailers and many people suggest that it is hard to find a better place anywhere in the UK for Jewellery purchases. After dark the area really comes alive though, as it is also home to some of the more affluent but less well known corporate businesses in the city, with several architects, management consultants, IT companies and the like having offices in the lovely Georgian squares that are a feature of this affluent part of the city. This affluence has led to the development of a thriving restaurant and bar scene, with an emphasis on quality and style.

Epitomising this development is a very cool place that was host to a recent trip out for your author. Sitting just along Frederick Street from the famous Jewellery Quarter clock is a very pleasant looking glass fronted coffee and wine bar also called Fredericks. Fredericks Bar during the day features a spacious area out front with tables and umbrellas which is perfect for sitting with a coffee watching the World go by, particularly for those of us who still enjoy a cigarette or cigar. Once through the large glass doors the bar itself is beautifully appointed in the style of Seattle coffee shop or Barcelona street corner bar with sumptuous leather seating complimenting the dark wood feel of the bar and walls. It is often a concern when I see a bar finished to this standard of style that the substance of the place will fail to match up, but this is certainly not the case at Fredericks. The coffee is fresh and full flavoured, the espresso particularly rich and potent. The drinks range is broad with some great World beers and a strong emphasis on quality throughout the wine list. I tried a very pleasant fruity red wine from Argentina that slipped down very comfortably and left a delightful warm glow.

Having sampled the drinks I perused the food menu, and found it excellent for light bites as well as something a little more substantial. The baristas seemed knowledgeable and were able to talk in detail about the menu offering advice on ingredients for specific dietary needs, something that can be tremendously useful in these days of somewhat unusual food regimes. All in all the feel and look of Fredericks bar is exceptional, the coffee first class, the alcoholic drinks are well worth seeking out and the food is a perfect mix of strong flavours and elegant presentation. Highly recommended as somewhere a little different but still eminently accessible for a great night out in Birmingham....

The problem with conspiracy theories - eye witness evidence.....

Part of an ongoing series on the issues around some of the areas of study that interest me and that make me think. You may have noticed by now that I like thinking. I believe that it is fundamental to the progress of humanity to question and wonder and think about the World and all the wonders in it. I have a broad range of interests but they do tend to have a core, or nucleus around which they orbit. This core is based around psychology, philosophy, theory of mind and perception and how we, as a species view and understand and interact with our environment. A big part of that is trying to understand how the human mind works in terms of things like pattern recognition. A good example of this is the famous image of the face on mars. This is an image of a mountain on the surface of Mars that appears to be carved into the likeness of a stylised anthropomorphic face. Further photographs of the area have shown that there is nothing other than natural processes involved in the shaping of the mountain top, and that the “face” is simply an optical illusion caused by shadow and light in an unusual configuration. What is interesting is to show this image to people and ask them about it.

Almost everyone that I have shown it to has seen a face and has questioned how this can be. This is even the case with people who are completely convinced that there is not now, nor has there ever been, life on Mars so there is absolutely no way that a mountain top could have been artificially modified to show a face. They still see a face and wonder how it got there, as distinct from immediately seeing a mountain top with interesting pattern of light and shade. This is interesting as it suggests that pattern recognition is a powerful driver in perception, and one that is powerful enough to overcome scepticism or even reality. This, for me, has implications for the whole sphere of conspiracy theory per se in that if we are conditioned to see patterns and interpret them in a way which does not rely on fact or reality, we are thereby only ever observing subjectively rather than objectively and our perception of reality is not something on which we can rely outside the most mundane areas. This is an area that is coming into greater prominence as our criminal courts begin to react to this phenomena in terms of reducing the importance placed on eye witness reports in light of evidence that even when the witness is a trained observer, the evidence is subject to interpretation and is not reliable.

When looking at conspiracy theories it is frequently suggested that there are groups who are trying to control the world by infiltration, false flag operations, misdirection, symbolism and so on, and these are often spotted as patterns, either in data or architecture or group dynamics. Of course, if we are now suggesting that pattern recognition is inherent to the extent that it causes misinterpretation of evidence then these aspects of conspiracy theory become much more difficult to assess and to hold as being credible. If we consider the Masonic/illuminati conspiracy theories that major American cities are laid out along Masonic principles and the street systems show Masonic symbols we immediately see the problem – we are conditioned to spot patterns, so thats what we do, whether they are actually there or not. In the same way, if we look at UFO conspiracies we can see that lights in the sky could potentially be a rich area for misinterpretation and erroneous observation, even when the observer is highly trained and credible. The Phoenix lights case would be a good example of this, a line of lights being misinterpreted as a triangular shape.

This is not to say that conspiracy theories are wrong, or irrelevant, but simply that reports must be viewed from the perspective of understanding that at the most fundamental level, we are conditioned to see things that are not real, and to misinterpret things that are real in such a way that it can be suggestive of large scale conspiracy in a very plausible way, when in fact there is little if any evidence. This applies to a very wide range of conspiracy theories. This is far from being the only issue, but it is a good start point to bear in mind....

The problem of UFO's, ghosts and other paranormal phenomena...

I have an interest in the theories regarding extra-terrestrial life, life after death, reincarnation and various other alternative viewpoints that are outside the mainstream, but I am also a staunch realist with a scientific background and a healthily cynical attitude. Given this caveat you are probably, if you are a “believer” in UFO stories and the like, already switching off, and this is at the root of the problem that I am going to address. Let us be clear about this. Forget conspiracy theories for the moment, forget Area 51 and Roswell, and everything else you have read of heard about for a moment. Whatever the various governments and secret societies may or may not know one think is absolutely clear. There is NO conclusive evidence regarding the existence or otherwise of UFOs, ghosts, ESP or anything else in the public domain. None, not one piece. But how can I say this? What about the Phoenix lights? What about Rendelsham Forest? What about x,y and z? These are reports, not evidence. They may be very credible reports, from very credible witnesses, but this is irrelevant to the premise being discussed. They are not evidence. If I went to court and claimed that you had just stolen my car and I had seen you this might be enough to have you investigated by the police but certainly wouldn't be enough to convict you. This is not evidence, it is a report. The reason that the police would perhaps investigate this is to gather evidence to prove or disprove the report to the satisfaction of the Crown Prosecution Service in the UK, and then a Judge and jury to gain a conviction.

The point is that the report is just that, a report, an opinion of an event, real or not, and that is all that we, the general public have with regard to any of these things. This presents a problem, because this is not the impression that many people have when they think about these phenomena. There is a general confusion regarding what constitutes evidence, and of course in this area it is always argued that any evidence that is found is immediately hidden and those finding it are silenced. This may well be the case, and at no point am I dismissing the possibility of UFOs, alien contact or anything else, but this is the problem. Whether there has been evidence hidden, or no real evidence at all, the result is the same. There is no evidence in the public domain. Consequently the only thing that we can reliably say about these areas is that they are interesting, and that there are possibilities that these phenomena exist and may have an influence, and yet the majority of people in the UK believe that UFOs and ghosts exist. It is a small majority, depending on which figures you believe, between 52% and 63% of the British public believe in at least some of these things, but a greater number than vote for our Government.

This is a problem, because it means that whenever reports are made in the media, it becomes impossible, in my opinion to investigate these reports effectively because of the belief that is generated. A classic example of this has already been mentioned, the Phoenix Lights report. A UFO sighting report from multiple witnesses in Phoenix, Arizona of a series of lights in the night sky. According to the reports these were anything from a line of lights that appeared in sequence, a report corroborated by the video footage available, to a gigantic triangular craft the size of two football pitches, or at least 250 metres long flying silently and slowly over the city, a report uncorroborated by any video evidence available. Having studied the evidence and communicated with witnesses personally I am satisfied that this is not a UFO sighting but is a case of a military aircraft dropping battlefield illumination flares over a military exercise some considerable distance from Phoenix. This is in part similar to the official story presented by the US official investigators, and therefore not accepted by UFO believers, however, it is by far the most likely explanation, and using Occams Razor it is the default position until such time as additional information is uncovered.

The problem is that there are many more people, some of whom are witnesses to these lights, some of whom aren't who go beyond disputing the official story, or putting forward alternatives, to categorically stating that this is a genuine alien craft sighting, which is of course not the case. The investigation has not reached a conclusion, nor is it likely to, but that is another story....

Why programmes like CSI are a bad thing....

It may seem like an odd subject for a blog post, but I have a theory, yes I know, one of many, but hey, I'm a thinker. Anyway, the theory goes something like this. Programmes like the CSI series, Bones, Cold Case and so on do a significant dis-service to modern society. They do this by perpetuating the myth that science can provide answers to “mysterious” occurrences. Further, I believe that this is a deliberate ploy on the part of the geo-political-media complex to continue the process of controlling the way we, the public view the World. Recently there has been increasing cause to question in the criminal courts the evidence of forensic experts. There have been several cases of miscarriages of justice based on forensic evidence including fibre analysis, DNA fingerprinting, injury analysis and so on and the reporting of these has been less than full in the mainstream media.

There can be little doubt that the advances in scientific understanding over the last hundred or so years has been incredibly rapid and has given tremendous advantage in terms of standards of living, but as yet science has not given us a complete understanding of the way the World works and the intricacies therein. A couple of non-specific cases that leap to mind are the series of “Satanic abuse cases” in the late 1970's and 1980's, the series of miscarriages over “shaken baby syndrome”, the erroneous use of psychological profiling in several serial killer cases, and these, and many more like them suffer from a common fault. They all rely on experts in their fields presenting apparently credible evidence in criminal investigations and cases that because of an incomplete picture of the science involved, both on the part of the experts involved, and the investigators and later the courts and jurys, is fundamentally flawed.

Why do I say this? Well, the hind sight evidence is clear. There have now been several cases where evidence provided by expert witnesses has been subsequently successfully challenged despite the original evidence being seen as unquestionable. This has been the case in all of the examples listed above. To date there has not been a single successful prosecution of a Satanic cult of any type, nor any evidence for the existence of Satanic abuse other than as an excuse for abuse in general. There have been several high profile cases of families torn apart by criminal convictions for child abuse that have later been overturned, and several cases where serial killers have been free to continue as a direct result of investigators being misdirected by incorrect profiling by psycholgists. So how does this link to my concerns over what are, on the surface, innocent, entertaining TV shows? These shows focus strongly on the use of forensic science as a panacea to miscarriages of justice and as a perfect way of reaching the truth, and this is a problem.

It sets the tone in the mind of the viewing public, some of whom will go on to carry out jury service, that forensic evidence is black and white, unquestionable and inviolable and that experts in these fields have all of the answers. This is simply not the case, but by creating this mindset it allows for the possibility that jurys can be manipulated and directed in ways that can lead to these miscarriages. I think these programmes should come with a warning stating clearly that they are works of fiction and that they represent an idealised version of the way in which these experts work and the facilities that they have available to them, and do not represent fact, but even with such a warning, would that make a difference? Now don't get me wrong, I quite enjoy these programmes, but I am in a position where I have an understanding of the science involved, and am clear on the difference between fact and fiction, but I am also aware that I am in the minority in a society which is becoming increasingly scientifically illiterate once you get beyond those who follow a scientific career. If you don't believe me, next time you are out with friends in their late teens and early twenties and turn the conversation to any science subject, you will find it shocking I'm sure how quickly people who don't have an interest in science get out of their depth and start coming out with information that is just wrong. It is quite worrying really, but that is a subject for another post....

Why there is no substitute for personal experience...

Whether in business, or in a hobby or pastime or as part of a spiritual system there is nothing that can replace the benefits derived by personal experience. This may seem like something of a sweeping statement, and I have often heard it argued particularly by business owners in a sales environment that employees with experience tend to lack the drive and ambition shown by younger, less “Jaded” employees. In my own experience I have found this to be a fallacy based on mis-conception and misunderstanding of the sales cycle and process. Certainly it can be argued that employee in a sales role is less likely to take a gung ho, bull by the horns attitude, but it could also be suggested that this is precisely because they have less need to, having developed a more complete range of complementary strategies that allow for a more balanced and sometimes more effective approach.

Having a consultative role means that I have the privilege of working with a wide range of different businesses and business owners and also with a wide range of employees. I get to work with and mentor and train groups from 16-18 year old apprentices through early to mid twenties graduates right the way through to fifty plus re-trainees looking to return to the workplace after a prolonged absence, as well as people who have been in their careers for many years. I find in the main that the age and experience of an individual is far less relevant to their drive, passion and ambition than is the way in which they are motivated. I have found that motivating older employees requires a totally different mindset to that required to motivate a school leaver. In the same way, motivating someone with a career is completely different to motivating someone who has been long term unemployed. However once these differences are understood and allowed for, anyone can be motivated to give or take the same degree.

The big difference that I have found is that when working with older people is that having found the right motivational keys the additional life experience can allow that person to thrive more fully because they are able to parley that experience into a better communicative conversation with clients, both internal and external, and consequently are better able to effectively utilise new skills and abilities to drive a business forward. They are also, in the main, having become motivated, better able to maintain that motivation and therefore become easier to manage. The downside of greater experience is that greater care must be taken in that management, and a more refined management style is required. The motivational cues of a junior staff member are rather different to those of more mature employees.

This situation is seen particularly in conversation with a wider range of employee types. The older and more experienced staff members tend to be better able to converse across a broader subject range than the less experienced and it is the job of a good manager to be able to draw on this resource effectively and to maximise the benefit derived. Particularly in these difficult economic times, the benefit of that extra breadth can be invaluable as with it tends to come greater credibility. Business owners and managers ignore the benefits to be derived from working with older people at their peril....

Avoiding workplace conspiracies....

There are many people who will tell you that the current rise of conspiracy theories is nothing to worry about. That the transition of conspiracies into the mainstream does not present any major problem, but I am inclined to disagree for at least one very clear reason. Increasingly in the several workplaces that I am involved with I am seeing an increase in what would perhaps best be described as conspiracy based paranoia amongst colleagues and even extending out to clients and customers. I am also seeing purchasing decisions being influenced by conspiracy theories at a large scale. What concerns me is the way that this can translate into problems in the workplace. Business is difficult enough in these challenging times without having to deal with errant employees creating fictitious difficulties because they have bought in to conspiracy theories.

Lets be clear about something. On a personal level I find conspiracy theories to be slightly amusing, slightly interesting insights into the human psyche. I occasional have a little fun with people around me on these themes. I am of a scientific bent and tend not to buy into most conspiracy theories – as an example, one I had fun with is a less well known one that all Walmart stores have an owl statue hidden on them somewhere because the founders of Walmart were part of the Skull and Bones group that worship the Owl God Moloch – have a look, next time you are at one, you will almost certainly see an Owl statue – the fact that this is because the Owl statue is designed to frighten off pigeons is largely irrelevant, it is a bit of fun. Now when I had a little play with this and pointed out the owl statue on my local Walmart, and then a couple of others locally a colleague of mine began to get a bit nuts and started confiding all sorts of paranoid thoughts to me about the company we both work for as well as various governments and institutions.

Again, this could be brushed off as just a minor distraction, but for this chap, his conspiracy delusions were such that he was not able to work at his full capacity because he was constantly analysing what his colleagues were doing and second guessing their motives rather than focusing on his own work. This ended up costing the company at least two project contracts that he was involved with, and there was no doubt that the conspiracies he was worrying about within the workplace were complete nonsense. In the end he had to be disciplined over some of the things he was saying to colleagues and even bosses. It turned out that he had been heavily into conspiracy theories for years and that it is likely that immersion in these theories had a profound negative effect on his psychological balance.

Conspiracy theories can be fun, but they are only ever a bit of nonsense. I'll be blogging more about why conspiracy theories are a nonsense shortly, but for now, just trust me, they are all money making scams and can be safely ignored, and most importantly they have no place in a workspace environment....

Why businesses fail....

There has been a big push for people to take up the torch of entrepreneurship and to start their own businesses. There are many good reasons for doing this, and some not so good but in the main if you have a good idea and a bit of backing you can make a good case for setting up a business. For most people in their first forays this is done on a small scale, setting up as a sole trader or a partnership perhaps testing the water and seeing how things develop. This is a perfectly good way of starting out. Taking on too much debt or other baggage initially can be a disaster so starting with something manageable and something that you can grow with and develop with and learn with can be a great start point. There are plenty of resources available to provide advice and support for the new business owner, but one area that they often miss out on is what can allow things to go wrong, and what can happen if it does. Of course, no-one wants to appear to be negative when you are taking those first tentative steps, particularly when there is such a push to get people thinking along these lines but these are important points and should be highlighted.

The biggest cause of business failure within the first twelve months of business is failure to control the finances of the business, either the income in terms of not bringing cashflow into the business, or the outgoings in terms of having too much money going out of the business unnecessarily. It can be an absolute nightmare trying to chase payment from people that you have provided goods and services to, particularly if you are offering credit terms to your customers as many businesses have to do, particularly in the business to business sector. It is also very easy to look at invoices as money in the bank, and to spend based on those figures rather than actually waiting till the money hits. This is even more of an issue if you are trying to run a business without reasonable financial backup when as a business you can be operating in a hand to mouth fashion. Having at least a basic understanding of business finance is absolutely crucial, certainly in terms of being able to manage day to day book-keeping tasks, invoicing, bill paying, the basics of payrolls and taxation, basic credit control and so on. You don't necessarily need a computer or any computer ability to be able to do this. Computers help, and save time as long as you know how to use them reasonably well, but before computers businesses ran perfectly successfully using notebooks, accounting books and all the rest involved in a manual accounting system, and that is still the case. Many people aren't that comfortable with computers, and if you are one of those, find another way that you are comfortable with, otherwise you won't be confident that you are getting it right, and mistakes will be made.

There are of course other causes of business failure, and I will cover those in more detail over the coming weeks, but in brief, relying on other people completely to run your business for you is generally a bad idea, as is trying to grow too fast, as is paying staff too much, as is not focusing enough on sales, or focusing too much on sales and not enough on fulfilling orders, but this finance issue is significantly more of an issue than most of the others. Having suggested that, the other area that isn't covered so much is what happens to a business when it does fail, and what the implications are for the business owner in that situation. The answer to this depends on how you have set up your business. If it is your first business there is a reasonable chance that you will have set up as a sole trader or partnership. In these cases you are personally responsible for debts incurred by your business. If, on the other hand, you have set up a limited company, you are usually not responsible for the liabilities of the business, although this may not be the case. Whichever way you have the business set up, failure can be devastating, and the earlier you get good advice the better. This is why understanding the finances is so crucial. As soon as you can see difficulties in paying bills or even worse, wages you need to get advice. Your accountant can help, as can your bank and there is good advice available online and through local business organisations such as chambers of commerce. Taking advice early can mean the difference between recovery and failure, so never be too proud to ask for help.

Belated New Year first post....

So, as you can probably guess by the delay to this post, there have been many and various changes in your authors circumstances with the dawning of what I have decided will henceforth be called LYoH rather than 2012 given the insanity that will undoubtedly develop over the coming twelve months. The acronym of course stands for Last Year of Humanity, because if the Mayans don't get us, the New World Order will, and if they don't it will be the Illuminati or the Rosicrucians or the Masons or even the GodSquadders finally pissing off the almighty that we get another flood. Yes, it is finally here, the real, final, absolute, no really it is, look I mean it this time, honest to goodness End of the World Show! I could care less to be honest. Lets assume that there is a natural cataclysm. The chances of an individual being able to increase their survival chances are remote. Same for global conflict, and even if survival was possible, unless you are Ray Mears do you really think you can survive a complete loss of technology?

I will be devoting this year to exploring some of the more interesting conspiracy and esoteric theories along with expanding the series of articles on neo-spirituality and business philosophy. I am also planning to expand the blog remit into economics and particularly global politics, so that should keep me busy. Fortunately, as I now find myself with rather more time on my hands than I had planned that shouldn't present a major problem, but we will have to see. Whatever happens, it will be an interesting year I'm sure with many ups and downs and some fascinating developments. Having to find new gainful employment of my time, and new sources of income will be interesting as will having to improve my health, both physical and mental. So a challenging year ahead, more focused than last year perhaps, more intense, perhaps more engaging but we will have to see.

There are a couple of projects that I already have in mind beyond the blog plans, but more of those as the year develops. They are only at the most basic planning stage as yet, so no details are available other than it could lead to an increased personal profile for WhatBoxCreatives and may lead to an increased ability to fund the ongoing development of project Loki – although even that might be saying too much. I could tell you all about it, but I would have to silence you....

Watch this space over the coming days and you may be in for a treat or two....

Christmas is fast approaching….

I’m not a big fan, if I’m honest. I’m not Christian for a start, so the religious aspect is rather lost on me. I’m just about scraping by financially so the commercial aspect is not one I can indulge in, and even if I could, I don’t really have much of a family to speak of, not that I am on speaking terms with anyway, being a bit isolationist so I don’t really have anyone to buy things for, and the whole family coming together thing doesn’t really happen for me. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not particularly grumpy about Christmas, it just isn’t that important to me. If other people want to decorate their houses from top to bottom, if they want to go out to lavish office parties, or spend time in contemplation and praise of the birth of their saviour, or if they just want to spend a few days devoted to having quality family time that is absolutely fine with me. In fact I applaud them for it, as I applaud anyone with the get up and go to engage with the wider World.

Of course what this does mean is that I get to have a quiet giggle about the whole commercialization of a religious festival arguments, which is always fun. Christians being labeled killjoys for wanting to keep consumerism out of the celebration of the birth of their Lord, fans of presents pointing out the Gold, Frankincense and Myrrh brought by the wise men, Christians retorting that these are allegorical presents denoting the life and more importantly the death of Jesus, thereby being prophetically integral to the biblical story. Ah, but what about the shepherds bringing their lambs? Those are allegorical too apparently, and so it goes on, often for many hours. For me it is just a bit of fun but they take it all rather seriously, as though it actually mattered. I can’t see the Christian God as I vaguely understand him giving two hoots what people get up to in terms of gift giving. Didn’t he give us free will to sort that out in our own heads? Still, makes it all a bit more jolly Ho Ho Ho!

And on that subject, we come to the hero, or villain of the piece depending on your point of view and bank balance, the Jolly fat man himself, Father Christmas or St. Nicholas or possibly Odin in drag or King Wenceslas from the carol or the Holly King of Celtic mythology or the Coca-Cola advertising campaign if you want to be really cynical, but whoever and whatever he is, this chap brings presents to all the good little boys and girls, and nothing to those who have been naughty, although I’m pretty certain a little naughtiness is usually acceptable. I mean we aren’t talking arson or manslaughter here right? Just a bit of petty thievery perhaps? So that’s fine. Now there are some who argue that the whole concept is just more pressure heaped onto already overburdened parents to buy yet more junk for their offspring in the hope that they won’t get bullied too much at school for having last seasons trainers or whatever it might be. There are others who say that allowing a little magic into childrens lives helps to spark creativity and allows the child to develop a sense of theatre and drama.

Whatever your personal take on Christmas, Yule, Hannuka, Saturnalia whatever you or your forefathers chose to call the time around the winter solstice, stay safe, stay as happy as you can, eat well and try not to stress too much. It is seldom worth it in the long run….

Your website is your shop window

There can be little doubt that the percentage of business done online is increasing year on year. In the US in since 2001 online transactions have increased from $249 Million to $49.8 Billion in 2009. A similar trend has been seem across the developed world. In addition to this the demographic of online consumers has changed even more dramatically. In 2001 the percentage of women regularly using the internet in the US was 2.1%, by 2009 this had risen to 52.8%, almost exactly matching the total population demographic.

Combined together, and taking into account the fact that these increases have an impact not just in B2C online transactions, but also in B2B transactions, it becomes clear that as a business, your web presence is only getting more important.

Think in terms of the  sociological reports on the effect of appearance on high street shopping. Studies have shown that if an area is visually unappealing, has shops that are closed down, has litter on the streets and is poorly lit at night, footfall in that area drops, and sales drop accordingly. Now translate that into your business website. If your site is cluttered, if things are hard for your customer to find, it your customer has to click through screen after screen, if the visual impact of your site is jarring, if buttons don’t work correctly, or send people away from your site, the same thing can happen. Visitor numbers fall, the amount of time people spend on your site falls, and the business your site generates falls.

The technology behind websites, and the design principles and trends in terms of appearance change over time. Typically websites go out of date in two years, and in order to maximize search engine friendliness really needs to have some work done every month, in just the same way that the street outside a shop in the real world needs to be swept and tidied regularly. Your online presence may, in some cases, be the only contact your customer has with you, it is increasingly becoming the first point of contact your customer has with you. Get it right, and success becomes easier to achieve, get it wrong, and you may never know how many customers never get as far as contacting you.

Working with a good web design company that will offer you content management, and ongoing maintenance can make a huge difference to your business, and when that is combined with a company that really understands how to analyse where your website is strong and where it needs work, you can, by partnering well create a unique and successful web brand that achieves your goals and ambitions.

Business basics 101 – Understand your business

Whether you have run businesses for years or you are starting out fresh having been working as an employee the first step in creating a new business venture is planning. The drafting of a complete business plan should be a very early priority after the initial idea phase. Coming up with a good idea for a business is actually not that difficult, and it tends to be in an area in which you already have some expertise. You may be a builder, electrician or plumber looking to start up on your own, or a website designer tired of the 9 to 5 grind, or a business manager looking to break into consultancy. It doesn’t really matter, chances are you are looking to utilize some of your existing skills but in the context of reaping the rewards yourself. Of course the potential downside of this is that you are also taking on the risks yourself.

Having formulated an idea of what you want in your new business, the crucial step as previously suggested is to develop a well worked out and thought through business plan. There are plenty of templates available for free online that will help with this process but essentially your business plan is an opportunity to explore in thought how you feel your new business will operate. It allows you to contemplate how you will generate business, what the risks are likely to be, what the costs will be, how much revenue you can generate, how long it will take you to turn a profit, how much investment you will need and even how you will drive the business forward, your mid to long term goals and an analysis of the marketplace you are entering into.

Bear in mind that this business plan, whether you end up showing it to anyone else or not forms the blueprint for your business and can easily be the difference between success and failure. It is by no means set in stone, but it is certainly something that you should regularly refer back to and modify as necessary. Of course, if you are looking for business funding, whether from the banks, or from private sources you are going to need a very carefully worked out business plan in order to demonstrate business viability. Whatever your reason for producing one, whether for personal use or for fund raising, your business plan must meet three criteria. It must be credible, in that figures must be realistic and achievable within the timeframes established. It must be as accurate as possible as it forms the basis of your business strategy moving forward, and finally it must be understandable. There is little point in filling your business plan with buzz words and acronyms if they are meaningless, or worse still irrelevant to anyone reading it.

It may sound like a long winded and onerous task, but you will have to trust me on this, a well structured, clear, concise and above all usable business plan is absolutely the best way to invest time in setting up a business. The very best advice I can give you, in summary, is : Keep it simple, keep it relevant, keep it usable and above all, keep it honest. If you follow these guidelines, you will find yourself in a much stronger position than the next guy who is starting up on a wing and a prayer with nothing but self belief and a half baked idea…..

Moments of madness…..business nightmares….

There is an old saying, American I believe, that goes something along the lines of “If you can’t learn you ain’t worth whipping”. It sounds vaguely Texan and refers I think to the image of a recalcitrant animal that resists training to the extent that it is better to give up on it and accept it as it is than continue trying to train it. I know a few people like that, and indeed I’ve met a few people in business like that as well, and one thing that they have in common is that they don’t seem able to learn from their mistakes. When things are going well, or when it is happening in a company that you have nothing to do with other than being an observer it doesn’t present a problem, but when it is a company that you work with, or worse still work for, that is far more of an issue.

Let me give you an example of a company I am familiar with. The owner of this company is great at coming up with ideas and plans and schemes, but is pretty much useless as seeing those schemes through to fruition. Now this per se is not a major issue, there are plenty of successful people who are ideas focused and find productive and efficient people to work with and for them who can organise those ideas and drive them forward to create a very nice business indeed. In business as in life we all have our roles to play. However, in this particular case it does present rather more of an issue because this particular business owner is not very good at discriminating between a good, solid completer/finisher and a complete chancer who has little if any idea of how to run a successful business.

Consequently this fellow has so far had an idea for a telecoms company that he left the running of to a twenty two year old lad who could barely manage himself let alone a telecom sales company. He then moved on to web design, having seen the telecoms company disappear in a cloud of debt, and handed the running of it to a sales guy who funnily enough was also twenty two, and could also talk the talk, but was functionally illiterate and struggled to manage himself let alone a web design business. Now letting this happen once is a mistake that anyone can make. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, letting it happen twice smacks of carelessness. But it gets worse. Having had the web design company disappear, funnily enough into a remarkably similar cloud of debt to the previous telecoms business he is now planning an online retail business, the running of which he is giving to…..yes you’ve guessed it, a twenty two year old sales type who can talk the talk, although not, it has to be said in English…..oh dear oh dear oh dear.

So, what does this tell us, other than that this guy is not someone on whom it would be good to rely? Well, it suggests a fundamental lack of insight, or the ability to analyse previous mistakes. What is interesting in this case is that the gentleman in question is very much in the habit of apportioning blame to the people that he puts in place to run things, rather than perhaps considering that it is his judgment that should be called into question for picking them so poorly in the first place. It seems, from an observers perspective that he invests complete confidence in these people without understanding or questioning whether that confidence is well placed or not. The consequence of this is that his plans invariably fail but he considers himself blameless.

I have begun to consider why this might be. His plans are not necessarily bad, his puts together business plans that have merit, and starts them well, but I wonder if there is at some level an aberrant psychology that is causing him to feel that the business may fail but that he must do all he can to avoid having to shoulder responsibility himself. I know from his history that he has been responsible for several businesses failing at significant cost to suppliers and employees, and I wonder if he is just not willing to face that possibility again, leading to him shifting responsibility onto these youngsters who are relatively easy to blame when things go wrong, as they inevitably do.

It seems an odd way to go about running a business, but each to their own I guess, and I’ve heard that denial is a very pleasant place to live…..

Pagan beliefs in a Christian World

Here in the UK our conversion to Christianity began more than fifteen hundred years ago with the Romans just before they left our shores. The process was a long one as our nation was invaded and colonized by non-Christians coming over from Europe. The Germanic and Scandinavian countries from which most of our invaders came remained at least in part non-Christian until the mid eight hundreds, and as a consequence Christianity was not established as the dominant religion until the defeat and conversion of the Danish leaders by the Christian King Alfred in the ninth Century. The process was completed as far as some historians are concerned by the invasion in 1066 by the Normans and the establishment of the Norman Church in Great Britain. So the process of Christianisation can be considered to have been an ongoing process over approximately five hundred years, and it should further be noted that there were additional discrepancies in that there were at least two rival versions of Christianity competing for influence, the Church of Rome coming up from the South and East and what has been loosely termed Celtic Christianity coming from the North and West, particularly Ireland.

It should perhaps be noted that there are some historians who consider that the Celtic Church was more or less influenced by the integration of Druidic teaching as a hold over from the Roman defeat of the Druids at Anglesey in the first century AD. There is evidence of a continuation of Druidic colleges in some form in Ireland and to a lesser extend in Scotland, but this evidence is not strong and exactly what influence, if any Druidic practices and teaching had is hotly debated. There has been, for the last three hundred years or so a movement to increase the perceived influence of Druidic thinking on early British Christianity that has clouded the question somewhat. Evidence of this can be seen in the attribution of chalk hill figures to ancient Druids when there is little evidence for any of them before 1700AD and it is likely that they are all at best recreations, and at worst complete fantasy. There have even been suggestions that Stonehenge was a Druid monument or temple when it has been dated to a period between 4000 and 2000BC which makes it firmly Mesolithic into early bronze age, and almost certainly pre-druidic.

When considering the spread and development of Christianity across Britain it should be considered that the majority of that spread was through Christian missionaries coming out of monastic orders that had been established as seats of power over several hundred years. They had developed strong links in the surrounding area and taken control of considerable farmland and resources. They had been destroyed and rebuilt several times in some case and they were largely intolerant of alternative faith views. Given this background it seems unlikely that there would be a place, even within small rural communities, for local non-Christian practices to continue, although this is not to suggest that practices such as herbal medicine, bone setting and the day to day practical solutions to practical problems that the church had little influence over didn’t continue. The role of cunning folk and wise men and women is likely to still have been prevalent, and this brings an interesting wrinkle to the story.

If we consider the role of healers and spiritual leaders in non-Christian societies we find similarities globally. There is a clear role of healing through medicinal plants as well as a role for integration of the spiritual wellbeing of the community, often linked to a veneration of, or at least a reference to, significant ancestors, particularly those within family groups. This family grouping is interesting because it appears anthropologically that in many non-Christian traditions, information such as the correct plants to use is passed down generationally within a family, rather than being passed around generally. This could be a consequence of the principle that knowledge is power, but it seems likely that there is also a possibility that there is a basic understanding of heritance and that if someone has an aptitude for a certain task within the group, then it is likely that their progeny may have that same aptitude.

It is also suggestive that the targets for the witch trials and accusations throughout the middle ages tended to be those who took a healing, and community leading role, the people who in other societies would probably be considered Shamanic. It could be suggested that there was a feeling of threat on the part of the Church from these people, as the aim of the Church is control, and these people challenged that control by offering alternatives. Certainly we see within the Roman Church an understanding that healing, weather, harvests and the like were at the divine providence of God and could not be influenced by man other than through the intercession of the priesthood. This belief persists today with sites such as Lourdes being incredibly popular as a site of healing and prayer. Thus the church appears to have considered that it could replace local healers within communities and excerpt greater influence and control over the populace.

It is interesting to note that there are regular debates and discussions about the way in which the Church may have taken over existing beliefs and customs and modified them to make the Church more acceptable to non-Christians, but this seem generally to be predicated on dates and locations, and is to my mind highly questionable given that the Church is not known for its tolerance of existing beliefs. If we look at the way missionaries within recent times have acted towards none Christian beliefs we see a tendency to obliterate rather than integrate. To use a recent example of Papua New Guinea we see a tribal society, largely functioning at a neolithic level of subsistence farming and hunter-gatherer communities, with a broad range of beliefs and local deities and spirits. The actions of Christian missionaries has been to eradicate existing idols and fetishes, to completely change, and in places ban traditional burial practices, and to effectively de-consecrate spiritual sites rather than integrate them.

Certainly it could be argued that this is the role of a Church secure in itself and it’s beliefs operating largely unchallenged, a position that is not equivalent to that faced by one of several Christian Churches attempting to develop early Britain into a Christian nation so parallels are not necessarily valid, but none-the-less it does make one wonder if the supposed integration of previously sacred sites, the use of pagan images in churches and so on are as relevant or indeed possible as is made out. A common reference to Pagan images in churches are the green men and the Sheila na gig carvings, but these are by no means exclusively pagan, and the image of natural generation shown in these carvings can certainly be traced through purely Christian iconography. Similarly, the discovery of sacred pagan sites supposedly under Christian churches almost certainly owes as much to the limited availability of suitably elevated and secure sites than to any overt move on the part of the Church to subvert existing beliefs. In general, and on principle the idea of Christianisation is to teach that the old ways were wrong and that any reference to them must be expunged by re-birth within the community of Christ rather than being integrated.

There is a lot of nonsense written about the history of “native” religions in Britain, but there is little if any direct evidence of any beliefs directly attributable to pre-Christians, the evidence that we do have coming from external sources, since the society before Roman occupation was pre-literate, and archaeological finds are subject to interpretation and speculation. Again a good example of this is the theories around deposits of broken metal artifacts in wetland areas, frequently categorized as votive offerings to the local water deity to alleviate flooding, rather than, lets say, the scrap waste from a bronze age metalworking site dumped in the river because it was convenient, and the idea of recycling hadn’t taken hold. Just a thought….

Striving for perfection…..

For years I kept trying to tell myself that I didn’t get the whole perfection thing. That for me perfection was a concept that didn’t make sense. Perfection, even in the smallest of things is impossible, I would say to myself, as there are always improvements that can be made, no matter how small. I even tried to convince myself mathematically, an interesting decision given my lack of mathematical knowledge or understanding, but I latched on to the old Mandelbrot stuff about coastlines. You know the one, however hard you try to measure a coastline you can never measure it exactly because the coastline is fractal in nature, meaning that as you look closer and closer at a coastline you see that the lines you thought were straight and easy to measure are in fact made up of ever smaller lines each of which have to be measured, and each of these is made up of lines and so on and so on ad infinitum.

I am finally coming to the acceptance that this may not be the case for me. That there is at least the possibility that for some things, small things, things like writing a short article, cooking a simple meal, enjoying a film, can reach a state of perfection. Not perhaps in the sense that they are impossible to improve, but that they are perfect enough. Ok so this may be starting to sound like a cop out, but let me try to explain. There is a principle in economics called the law of diminishing returns which states that there is a point in a system at which the value of the amount of effort to make an improvement exceeds the value of the improvement. To give an example, lets say that you manufacture cardboard boxes. You start out making ten boxes a week by hand, and you sell them all so you decide to invest in another staff member, and they produce ten boxes too, so now you and your employee are both producing ten boxes, twenty in total and you sell all of those. Great! You think, and indeed it is, so you take on another staff member who makes ten boxes, and another and another, and then you reach a point where the last worker you employed only makes five boxes, so you think, that’s a bit odd.

When you investigate the situation you find that the last worker doesn’t have enough room to work so they are less productive. In fact they are so unproductive that they are costing you more in wages than the extra boxes they are producing. This is the law of diminishing returns. The extra labour input has reached a point that it is not efficient, there is another limiting factor, in this case space. I think, for me, there is an argument that in some situation perfection works in a similar way. Lets suppose that I write one of these articles, and I’m pretty happy with the first draft, but as I read it back I think “hmmm that bit there could flow a little better, and that word there is a little clumsy” so I make those changes and I read it again and something else could do with refining, so I do that, and so on until I reach a point that I am becoming unhappy with the article because each change requires other changes and I am spending so much time and effort getting it right that I end up ruining the article.

Wouldn’t it be better to make a few changes until I am pretty much happy with it and then get it posted up and move on to the next one, which may be better still a I will have learned from the last one? I am beginning to think so. So perhaps not completely perfect, but as perfect as it can be without getting a bit silly really. I will be interested to know what you lot out there think of this as an idea. I think it needs a bit more work on my part to understand where the cut off points are, and how I know when something is approaching diminishing returns, and how I overcome the idea that maybe one more change won’t hurt, when it is quite obvious that it will. Maybe I need to combine this idea with working on my ability to accept things as being good enough? It’s a tricky one, but the core idea remains interesting. Maybe I am more of a perfectionist than I allowed myself to believe, just with a modified idea of perfection as something that isn’t an absolute in the mathematical sense…..

A beautiful early Winters day….

For those of you who are regular readers you may be developing the impression that I don’t have much time for pleasantness and niceness. I am aware that I do tend to rant a bit, or burble on about whatever random nonsense is in my head at the time, so just for a change I thought I would ramble on about something a bit lighter. From my office window I can see down the road to a beautiful Georgian church square still surrounded with the Georgian townhouses that were originally built with it. The low Winter sun is bright in a clear blue sky and is bathing the church in glory, highlighting the magnificent stained glass windows. I can only image the rainbow of colours within the church created by the sunlight streaming through those windows but I imagine it to be fabulous.

This is one of my favourite times of year for many reasons. I love the cold, crisp morning, the taste and smell of fresh snowfall, although we haven’t had that particular treat yet, the sounds of the hardier birds still flitting about the place but probably most of all the wonderful artistic quality of the light. On those days when the skies clear the low transit of the sun keeps the light streaming at an angle that lends a sharpness to everything it touches. The stonework of the building opposite gleams, and even the mundane red brickwork is lent a special aesthetic by the rays and the spectrum of the light as it is forced to arrive through more atmosphere than the summer sun.

I’m constantly surprised that I don’t see more people taking a moment to pause in their busy day to just enjoy the sights and sounds of a beautiful Winters day. For me there is something deeply special about it, but I guess it takes all sorts. I have never been one for the more obvious heat and light of Summer, finding it too close and hot, but this afternoon, sitting in the window, watching the World go by, seeing the light shift as the sun tracks across the sky I can easily believe that all is right with the World, even if only in this moment, and this mind. It gladdens my heart and lifts my spirits and for a short while the World becomes bearable.

For me, taking the time to really appreciate these moments is crucial as it gives me a high point to refer back to in the darker days. To know that I can feel and experience beauty reminds me that I am human, that I part of the great, complex, ever changing pattern of life on this planet, and that there is always something to savour, something to enjoy, even when it feels like there is nothing left that is worthwhile.

I love Winter, and I love that I can find beauty in something so simply complex as the play of light on the wall of a building and through the branches of a tree. Today it is good to be alive…..

War Metal – First forays of the new alliance

The rest of the first couple of days was spend integrating our people into Lord Alexanders camp and getting a feel for the organisational structure that was already in place. His Lordships camp was divided into combat groups and our own people slotted into the various groups according to their skills. What amazed us was the training facilities that the camp offered. Outside the walls were gun ranges for both small and heavy arms as well as test ranges for armoured and robotic units. Half a mile outside the camp there was a line of scrap armoured vehicles set up in convoy formation that had clearly been used to practice assault drills and raids, and it was as we were looking at this that we began to learn about just how valuable we could be.

“Right, I’ve already given you a rough outline of how our alliance is distributed across our territory, but the big problem that we have right now is logistics. You can see that we have a lot of equipment, ammunition and weapons here but when we try to distribute it to our outlying ally camps we have to devote so many support resources to defending it that it leaves us terribly vulnerable here. What we need to do is effectively disrupt the Red Maw supply lines so that they are less effective at hampering ours.”

Sirius looked thoughtful for a moment and replied “How well do you know the Red Maw setup? When we had our problems with them we found that they had an autonomous cell structure of small groups of five to ten operatives acting independently within a defined region and consequently their need for logistical support was far less than ours giving them an advantage. We overcame this by focusing on each cell rather than the links between.”

“It is a similar situation here, but we know that although each small group operates in isolation we also know that they have a series of major supply routes that allow the groups to meet with a delivery of supplies. The problem we have is that there are perhaps twenty routes that they can use and we can’t cover all of them well enough to give us time to intercept the convoy once they have chosen a specific route. Here let me show you what I mean”

Lord Alexander swept an area of wall top clear of obstructions and pulled from his backpack a rather tattered large scale map of the area. On the map were marks for approximate positions of enemy units as well as a complex network of lines showing the potential routes for supply deliveries. The problem became clear as we looked at the map. The area was just too large and by the time you had established with route was being used it would be too late to do anything about it.

I stared at the map and as I did so something began to nag at the back of my mind. It seemed so simple that I was amazed that no-one had spotted it. Surely they had?

“Look here” I started “If you look at the way that these routes traverse the region you can see that there is something wrong. You have the supply shipments starting from here” I pointed at a point on the map “and here, and here and here” pointing out the many start points of the convoys “but that can’t be right. These shipments must be coming from a limited number of stores, otherwise it makes no sense. Now look at how all of these routes to the East seem to intersect at a nexus point here, and the Western routes intersect here. Now if I’m right these routes are just too random to have any efficiency so these points must be where the convoys are picking up supplys before moving on. It’s a clever ruse but I reckon that if we could get a team into either this area in the East or this area in the West we would be able to monitor the traffic and establish a pattern that would give us the edge we need.”

The rest of the group looked at the map and the points I had highlighted and I could see them trying to find flaws with the logic. Slowly each face turned from cynicism to surprise, to a grim determination.

“Can you put together a team to get out to these locations and establish a secure forward camp? We can supply you with everything you will need in terms of equipment, but you will need to have complete faith in your team to operate this successfully.”

“I have a team in mind already, but I’m going to need a specialist tracker and I don’t have one from our people who understands your terrain well enough, can you recommend one of your own people?”

Lord Alexander didn’t even hesitate “I know just the person, come with me and I’ll introduce you…..”

Is there a place for magic in the modern world?

I wonder if there is anyone who isn’t aware of a concept of magic? It pervades almost every aspect of life from language through entertainment and sport to being woven into the fabric of existence depending on your point of view. Something nice happens and it is described in English as “Magic”, we see a glorious sunrise and it is magically beautiful, one of the most popular book and film series of all time is about magic and wizards, fairy stories, even the name suggests magic before you get to the stories themselves. It seems to be built in at a fundamental level, but just because the concept is almost ubiquitous does this equate to magic having a place in the way we live our lives? I guess this comes down to how you perceive magic. There is a vast range of beliefs around magic, ad it can be quite tricky to pin it down to a definition, as definitions tend to be limited by language, and to be fluid over time.

The modern wizard stories give us an idea of magic that is to an extent shared by what would be considered practical users of magic, modern equivalents to mediaeval alchemists and mystics. That idea is that magic is the ability to uses ones own will to effect a change in the real World. This idea is a concept that is linked to phenomena such as telekinesis, the old spoon bending tricks so popular in the 1970’s in the West. I would suggest that for many people magic of this type is considered in the same way as science fiction, or aliens. This, to me at least, is interesting and I raise it because it has been suggested to me by a number of people.

If we think about what is going on here, we see an idea that magic is considered as being on a par with science fiction. Now science fiction when done well takes hard scientific fact and explores possibilities around it, weaving stories and tales but maintaining some semblance of  scientific credibility. Even the alien stories have at least a core of credibility within them, tending in the main to be at least theoretically plausible. For magic to be considered in the same light suggests that underlying the stories of magic there is a belief that magic in some sense exists. However, we live in an age when science is leaving less and less room for non-scientific explanations.

Let us suppose that what we consider to be magic, for example the ability to heal remotely is scientifically verified and the mechanism by which it operates is understood. Would this make the ability any less magical? If you think of a great film, seen at the cinema, something that is beautifully shot with a fabulous story and visuals, that can be described as a magical experience even though we know that no magic is involved. We know the methods and principles behind making those images come to life on the screen yet we can become completely immersed in the pseudo-reality of the film. The same could be suggested to apply to more “magical” constructs I think, in the sense that understanding how and why something happens can be suspended in the mind to allow for simple enjoyment of the experience.

My own opinion is that the idea of magic enhances experience of life rather than acting as a barrier to progress. I am quite sure that scientists like Professor Dawkins would consider this to be heresy but non-the-less I see no obvious insurmountable conflict between understanding the nature of sub-atomic particles and believing in fairies at the bottom of the garden. I think I would be far more concerned on a personal level with a world that lacked any sense of wonder, where everything was fully understood and enjoyment was conditional on that understanding….